Is it all over for David Davis?

Not much of a shock Result: Davis wins by-election, with a 15,355 majority. Although turnout down from 70.2% to 34%.

Does this provide the 'mandate' that he craves? A mandate to challenge Cameron for the leadership? A mandate to question the government over the 42-day detention law? No. To only get 72% of the vote when none of the other major parties are standing is pathetic (nb. even Mugabe managed to get 85%). Yes there were a lot of additional candidates out there, but they primarily consisted of the usual waifs, strays, and total nutters that turn up for elections; most clearly shown by the English Democrats (right-wing nationalists) coming third place and getting their deposit back!

Unfortunately this looks like the best possible result for Cameron. Davis returns to parliament, and Cameron will probably take the odd photo opportunity, but it is unlikely that Davis poses and real threat to the Tory leadership.

David Davis...but re-election will prove nothing!

Following my previous post, the Conservative David Davis MP is resigning, forcing a by-election in Haltemprice and Howden, which he wants to be held on the single issue of the 42-day detention bill. Whilst he wants to be seen as a man of principle, the election will be a joke. His constituency seat is not a battle between the Conservative Party and the Labour Party, but rather a battle between the Conservatives and the Lib-Dems...and the current rumblings are that the Lib-Dems will not be contesting the seat! If Davis wins, it means nothing.

The election seems to be more about internal Conservative Party politics than a Conservative-Labour fight. David Davis wants a meaningless mandate, whilst David Cameron will probably be hoping that the party suffers a little embarrassment with Davis losing, at the expensive of long-term embarrassment over internal party politics.

Whilst the odds look long, there is always an outside chance that Davis will lose. After all, if you were a Conservative Party member in the Haltemprice and Howden district would you really want to campaign on an anti-42-day-detention policy? Conservatives love a lock-em-up policy.

Only the Labour Party can win this election.