Oba-mania hits the UK!

What I really want to know about Obama's visit to the UK is whether Gordon Brown, or any of our other leading politicians, asked Barack to clarify his rather dismissive tone of the United Kingdom in chapter 8 of his "The Audacity of Hope". On the subject of the multilaterist approach to situations like Iraq, he points out that multilaterism means more than "we round up the likes of the United Kingdom and Togo and then do what we please" [p.309].

Maybe I'm just being a bit picky, and in other places Obama does speak more highly of 'Great Britain' (noticeably using different terminology), however, I did find the notion that the UK will follow the US wherever the US decides slightly offensive. We are far from being the 51st state,and Obama will quickly find that out when (hopefully) he becomes the US president.

Another Labour Defeat!

You have to feel as though Gordon Brown will never get a break when even safe seats like Glasgow East fall to the rather nasty Scottish nationalists. The question now is: Does Labour have the balls to weather the storm? Or will a bunch of backbenchers start to rip the party apart?

Whilst the press try to claim that Gordon Brown's holidaying in Suffolk is an attempt to distance himself from the lavish holidays of Tony Blair, could it actually be that he wants to keep within shouting distance of the Norwich South MP, Charles Clarke. Whilst I have always agreed with the proclamation as you enter Norwich - "A Fine City" - I am not overly impressed with Charles Clarke's noises since moving to the backbenches. How often is a point of principle really an opportunity to draw attention to one's own personal agenda?

Personally I believe that the Labour Party has done far better than I expected since its landslide victory in 97, but that is because I was a realist, refusing to get swept up in Tony's spin. The masses, however, believe the spin and have extremely short memories. State funeral for Margaret Thatcher? Surely that was some sort of bad joke?

The economy will probably start to improve by the next general election, and the public will forget that they were all tempted to swing from Brown to Cameron (what sort of idiot goes from Labour to the Conservatives anyway???), and hopefully Brown will win the next election.

Is it all over for David Davis?

Not much of a shock Result: Davis wins by-election, with a 15,355 majority. Although turnout down from 70.2% to 34%.

Does this provide the 'mandate' that he craves? A mandate to challenge Cameron for the leadership? A mandate to question the government over the 42-day detention law? No. To only get 72% of the vote when none of the other major parties are standing is pathetic (nb. even Mugabe managed to get 85%). Yes there were a lot of additional candidates out there, but they primarily consisted of the usual waifs, strays, and total nutters that turn up for elections; most clearly shown by the English Democrats (right-wing nationalists) coming third place and getting their deposit back!

Unfortunately this looks like the best possible result for Cameron. Davis returns to parliament, and Cameron will probably take the odd photo opportunity, but it is unlikely that Davis poses and real threat to the Tory leadership.

MacKenzie v. Davis: Sorry to miss it

The Labour Party have finally confirmed that they will not be throwing their hat into the ring of the David Davis circus. Rather than seeing Gordon Brown as gutless (as Davis suggested), I am sure that the majority of the thinking public (which admittedly isn't many), will realise that there was little chance of Labour winning in Haltemprice and Howden, and that the best option was to give Davis the contempt his stunt deserves.

Personally I was hoping for the farce of MacKenzie v. Davis, but the last I saw, that was looking increasingly unlikely. MacKenzie v. Davis would have been great for the Labour Party, it would have highlighted all the divisions between old and new conservatism. The huggy-feely public face of Conservatism having to have a battle with the lock-em-up Thatcherism which really flows through the majority of the party.

It looks increasingly likely that Davis will return to parliament with his tail between his legs, missing the battle that he needed to make himself a potential leader of the Conservative Party. David Cameron will breath a sigh of relief, and Gordon will get on with the job of leading the country.

Is there any other potential candidate that could show the rifts in the Conservative Party? Will any other publicly recognisable Tory break ranks and take on New Tory?

I wonder what the Sun headline would have been if MacKenzie had won...

David Davis...but re-election will prove nothing!

Following my previous post, the Conservative David Davis MP is resigning, forcing a by-election in Haltemprice and Howden, which he wants to be held on the single issue of the 42-day detention bill. Whilst he wants to be seen as a man of principle, the election will be a joke. His constituency seat is not a battle between the Conservative Party and the Labour Party, but rather a battle between the Conservatives and the Lib-Dems...and the current rumblings are that the Lib-Dems will not be contesting the seat! If Davis wins, it means nothing.

The election seems to be more about internal Conservative Party politics than a Conservative-Labour fight. David Davis wants a meaningless mandate, whilst David Cameron will probably be hoping that the party suffers a little embarrassment with Davis losing, at the expensive of long-term embarrassment over internal party politics.

Whilst the odds look long, there is always an outside chance that Davis will lose. After all, if you were a Conservative Party member in the Haltemprice and Howden district would you really want to campaign on an anti-42-day-detention policy? Conservatives love a lock-em-up policy.

Only the Labour Party can win this election.

DUP Alliance Evokes Major Memories

Gordon is riding(fairly)high thanks to nine votes from the DUP (and one from Anne Widdecombe) on the 42-day bill. Unfortunately the reliance on the nine Democratic Unionist Party votes will evoke memories of John Major's weak government's reliance on the nine members of the Ulster Unionist Party votes. Has Brown got into bed with the devil? Or did the DUP vote according to their conscience?

It seems likely to be a little bit of both: the 42-day bill is in line with the DUP's political thinking, whilst they won't be disappointed to have a little influence with the government.

Whilst I can understand the Labour Party and Liberal Party members voting against the bill, the Conservative Party voting is nothing but partisan voting for the sake of it. Are the Conservatives really against the 42-day bill? Of course not. Most of them would lock up anyone they didn't like (e.g., gays, foriegners, and the working classes) indefinately, given half a chance. They have merely seen it as an opportunity to put the boot into the Brown government.

Personally I am not overly concerned by the new 'erosion of civil liberties', but that is probably because I am a middle-class WASP who is unlikely to be carted off to prison because I am looking at a certain class of web site...and anyway, I can always claim it is part of my webometric research.

The electorate have turned into a mob!

The Tories have achieved their first by-election gain in 26 years as great swathes of the population lose all sense of reality and act with a mob-like mentality relishing in the opportunity to devour the current government. One of the worst aspects of man is the more that they get, the more that they want. We are standing on relatively strong economic foundations, with the majority of those in economic trouble being the ones who have been living beyond their means. Is the whole of society really in the trouble the right-wing press would have us believe? No. If things seemed better ten years ago it was probably because you were ten years younger, had less aches and pains, and had less responsibility. Grow up. This doesn't mean that the government couldn't do better, or that where the electorate has just grievances they shouldn't inform the government, it just means that electorate should try to behave more rationally. The Conservative party is not a rational alternative to those sections of society that need our help, it is an alternative to the those who are doing perfectly well but would like a little bit more so that they can have one or two extra polluting holidays a year, whilst their 4 X 4 is looking terribly shabby despite never seeing a muddy field in its life, and they only have the one guest wing.